What is Strategy in Times of Uncertainty?

Traditional planning asks, “What is most likely to happen?” Planning for uncertainty asks, instead, “What has already happened that will create the future?”

- Peter Drucker

It’s difficult to argue Peter Drucker as the father of all things great in the area of management. His wisdom from 1992 is incredibly applicable today. In short his comment was simply this:

 Planning on probabilities in changing times is futile as the unique events that constitute changing times have no probability.

 So where does it leave the small and medium business person as we ride the economic, political and regulatory roller coaster that is currently defining the business climate? Let’s look more closely at this question …

 By following Drucker’s wisdom, we can ask what has already happened that will create the future? So let’s look critically at what has happened?

•  Capital has been all but frozen in the small and medium business space – but what has already happened is the SBA implementing 90% guarantees and working with Treasury and the $15 Billion to get capital flowing again.
• Energy prices, specifically oil, have dropped to just over 30% of the high from last July – but has already happened is that energy companies have stopped drilling, demand has reduced globally but there are signs of a supply/demand gap coming that could spike prices again.
• Job losses in the US are over 3.5 Million over the last two quarters – but what has already happened is that most people realize that there is little security anywhere and are now considering starting a home based or small business.
• Traditional marketing has declined as organizations look at the best return on marketing dollars – but what has already happened is that social networking and online based technologies are creating a buzz that can not be matched as far as marketing is concerned, and people are applying this to small business, large business and non-profits.

Now this is just a small sample of some of the things that have already happened that will create the future. The question is, how are you designing your future to take advantage of these possibilities?

Are you actively ensuring that your plan is up to date, highly focused and the numbers are working? This is critical in ensuring that you can obtain capital for those bigger projects like expansion or new research when needed.

Are you looking vertically at industries that are impacted by either the capital crunch, the energy crunch or the housing crunch to find opportunity? Every issue is looking for bold solutions, and yours may just be the next big thing!

Are you building better plans and designing better systems for your small business? Competition will increase in the small business space and without great plans and better systems you are likely to become a statistic.

Have you diversified your marketing mix? Are you embracing the new and cutting edge opportunities that Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and others present small and medium sized businesses to truly craft and monitor a genuine message for their key audience?

 If you have gaps in the answers to these questions you should check out the STRiDE One-pager and the associated STRiDE Success program for your small or medium sized business. Getting the answers and designing the future to these questions and others, in a clear and concise one-pager, delivers the strategy, accountability and action you need to avoid the uncertainty and capture the opportunity.